12/29/2006
Sorry for the delay guys, im sure you understand as the holiday season has come and now basicaly gone i should be back and ready to reply to your emails as soon as possible.
So bring on the questions:
Thanks for your site. Very nice.
What is your thoughts of Ryan Shealy. Stud or Dud?
Thanks.
Bob
Bob -
Shealy is a guy who i would consider a sleeper kind of guy this season, most people may have forgotten about him due to the fact that he was dealt to the wasteland known as the Royals. Honestly with Shealy id have to say he is right in the middle. I dont think he will be a stud for a 1b, and he definatly wont be a dud. I would project a 25 HR season with around 85 RBI and a .280 batting average. Id say he is a good late round grab. Given a few years in the pros i think Shealy maxes out at 30-33 HR and 100-105 RBI, However if the Royals can keep their monster prospects together, Shealy could be a part of a nice middle of the lineup behind Butler and Gordon. Obviously Shealy has better value in a keeper league than he does in a standard league, but i wouldnt draft Shealy early or trade alot to get him. 1B is always a deep position.
I'm from Seattle, I was wondering if you could give your opinion on Adam Jones playing this upcoming season and where he would fit into the lineup and at what position?
Thanks, I enjoy your site
Erik
Erik -
I really like Adam Jones long term. He has been touted as a 5-tool player and i believe the hype. After struggling last season in a late september call up some people have soured on him. I however have not. Before the Mariners signed Jose Guillen i would have said Jones would compete with Snelling for the RF job (ichiro moving to CF). With Guillen signed and Snelling shipped out in the Vidro deal, i would say that Jones would most likely be the 4th OF this season. However, since he is still very young i believe that he will spend some more time in AAA, and the Mariners will use someone else and allow Jones to get more at bats this year by keeping him in the minors. If Jones does well in the minors he should be the first man called up if there is an injury. If Vidro fails miserably at DH, i can see Bavasi benching him and moving Ibanez to DH, and bringing up Jones to play in LF. If Jones proves he is ready, i think that is a great OF, defensively and offensively.
In terms of where he would fit into a offensive lineup, i would think that he would end up in an 8 or 9 spot in the lineup this year. For the future i think he would be a good #2 hitter, with an upside of possibly a #3.
Hope this helps
The more emails come in, the more i will replay to. Thanks to all that have emailed and keep sending in your questions
Saturday, December 30, 2006
Sunday, December 3, 2006
Keepers, Rumors, and FA signings
I've got one more keeper spot im deciding on. Here are the guys I'm considering for that spot: Harang, Wang, C.Young (sp), and Escobar. My goal is to win next year while still keeping an eye on the future as well, which is why most of these guys are still pretty young. Who should I keep?
-Max-
Ah, my first keeper question, and this is not an easy one. I will go through and talk about each of the options and what to expect from them and then tell you who id take.
Aaron Harang is one guy that tends to be a sleeper pick every year because he is not a big named player but puts up pretty good numbers every year. I think you can pencil him in for something around 15 wins and around 200 Ks. His ERA is usually pretty solid an under 4.00. Wang had a great year last year, if the only thing you are looking for is wins. This season I wouldnt expect a repeat in the win column. I think you could probably pencil him in for 15 or 16 wins, it is just too hard to repeat a high win season. Wang gets not strikeouts at all, but carries a pretty good era. Chris Young is a monster of a man standing at 6'10". He is not fully developed in my opinion yet and might have the most upside on this list. Pitching in San Diego will help keep his ERA down, while he continues to develop. He will not get 15 wins but could probably be penciled in for around 12 or 13. His strikeout rates continue to improve and should be good for around 160 or 170 this season. Escobar is the kind of guy who could sneak up and be a great pick this year. Playing on the Angels, a team who should win their share of games, he should be counted on to et around 14 or 15 wins. If healthy he is also good for an ERA around 3.60, and is a guy that gets nearly a strikeout per inning pitched.
My recomendation would be Aaron Harang. He should be good for an ERA around 3.75, which is one of the higher ERAs on this list, but not by much. However his true value comes in being one of the six players who got more than 200 Ks last season. To be exact, Harang was the #2 pitcher in all of baseball last year with 216 Ks.
Do you think Manny Ramirez will be traded? If so, who to, and for what?
-please no-
Well i gotta say that this is a very difficult question to answer. All conventional wisdom would tell you that the Sox wouldnt trade Manny because it would totally mess up their lineup. However you can just tell that Manny's time in Boston seems to be up. As most analysts have said, it just seems that the management in Boston is tired of Manny being Manny, and would like to get players that they feel are wanting to play in Boston. From what I've heard id say there are two most likely destinations. The first and most likely is probably the Dodgers. It seems to be a perfect fit in terms of needs and wants. The Dodgers need a big time power hitter desperately, and there are really only a few better than Manny. Also the Dodgers have plenty of top rated prospects that they should be willing to deal. Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, and James Loney have been the most talked about prospects in this deal. Jonathin Broxton has also been a frequently discussed player between the two teams. I would say that if this deal were to get done it would be something along the lines of Loney, Kemp and Broxton heading to Boston.
The second team is the San Diego Padres. Linebrink is apparantly available and Boston is in strong need of bullpen help with them shifting Papelbon to the rotation. other names that have been mentioned in a deal with San Diego are Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy. I cant imagine that the Padres would deal Jake Peavy, and i dont think that Gonzalez and linebrink will be enough to get Manny.
A Few Free Agent Notes:
- Jose Guillen signed a contract to play for the Seattle Mariners. This is a signing that is probably going under the radar, but is a big move for the mariners. Even though Safeco isnt a great hitters park, i would say that he should be penciled in for around 30 HR and 100 RBI depending on his spot in the line up. I would look for him to start in LF, and have Ibanez move to the DH spot. This leaves potential sleeper Chis Snelling competing with Jeremy Reed for an OF spot. If Ichiro will move to CF, then Reed is likely out and Snelling is likely in RF. However, if Reed has a great Spring then Ichiro might stay in RF and Reed will play CF.
- Dave Roberts moves to San Francisco. He will move into the CF position and bat leadoff for this team. I think you can assume that he will do about the same thing as he did last year statistically, however dont expect alot of runs. Bonds will no longer be in that lineup and they dont seem to have people in that lineup that will get him runs. This could bump up expectations for Vizquel and Durham for next season though. Vizquel should be batting #2 with Durham batting #3 and with a speedster like Roberts in front of them they should get plenty of opportunities to hit singles and get RBIs.
- Podsednik resigns in Chicago. Podsednik has little value in real life. His SB is the only thing that keeps him in the line up. He has a bad batting average and suspect arm. He might be best suited to be a CF, but for some reason has played LF most of his major league career. With Ryan Sweeney ready to take over an MLB job, look for Podsednik to compete with Brian Anderson for the last OF spot. The White Sox are not that high on Anderson anymore, but i cant imagine them not giving him another shot in the Spring. If he does well in Spring he may earn a platoon with Podsednik.
- Adam Eaton has moved on from Texas and will now throw for the Phillies. I would say that this helps Eaton owners in fantasy circles. I wouldnt say that Eaton becomes a great player to own, but i would say that this move might put him on some sleeper lists. Eaton had a 5.12 ERA in Texas, but his ERA should go down getting away from that hitters haven. Going to Phili should see Eaton get around 12-14 wins and lower his ERA to the low 4s atleast. Keep an eye on this guy.
- Adam Kennedy signs with the Cardinals. This was a great pick up for the Cardinals. Kennedy is a guy who plays gold glove defense and can handle the bat as well. This is a guy who could bat early or late in the order and produce for you. You could bat him 2nd in the lineup behind Eckstein and expect Kennedy to produce around a .280 batting average, and do many of the little things to help get Pujols to the plate with guys in scoring position. He could also be placed in the 9 hole in the lineup ( a spot he often filled in los angeles) and expect him to average around .300. Either way i think his value should go up with him joining a more productive offensive lineup in St. Louis.
-Max-
Ah, my first keeper question, and this is not an easy one. I will go through and talk about each of the options and what to expect from them and then tell you who id take.
Aaron Harang is one guy that tends to be a sleeper pick every year because he is not a big named player but puts up pretty good numbers every year. I think you can pencil him in for something around 15 wins and around 200 Ks. His ERA is usually pretty solid an under 4.00. Wang had a great year last year, if the only thing you are looking for is wins. This season I wouldnt expect a repeat in the win column. I think you could probably pencil him in for 15 or 16 wins, it is just too hard to repeat a high win season. Wang gets not strikeouts at all, but carries a pretty good era. Chris Young is a monster of a man standing at 6'10". He is not fully developed in my opinion yet and might have the most upside on this list. Pitching in San Diego will help keep his ERA down, while he continues to develop. He will not get 15 wins but could probably be penciled in for around 12 or 13. His strikeout rates continue to improve and should be good for around 160 or 170 this season. Escobar is the kind of guy who could sneak up and be a great pick this year. Playing on the Angels, a team who should win their share of games, he should be counted on to et around 14 or 15 wins. If healthy he is also good for an ERA around 3.60, and is a guy that gets nearly a strikeout per inning pitched.
My recomendation would be Aaron Harang. He should be good for an ERA around 3.75, which is one of the higher ERAs on this list, but not by much. However his true value comes in being one of the six players who got more than 200 Ks last season. To be exact, Harang was the #2 pitcher in all of baseball last year with 216 Ks.
Do you think Manny Ramirez will be traded? If so, who to, and for what?
-please no-
Well i gotta say that this is a very difficult question to answer. All conventional wisdom would tell you that the Sox wouldnt trade Manny because it would totally mess up their lineup. However you can just tell that Manny's time in Boston seems to be up. As most analysts have said, it just seems that the management in Boston is tired of Manny being Manny, and would like to get players that they feel are wanting to play in Boston. From what I've heard id say there are two most likely destinations. The first and most likely is probably the Dodgers. It seems to be a perfect fit in terms of needs and wants. The Dodgers need a big time power hitter desperately, and there are really only a few better than Manny. Also the Dodgers have plenty of top rated prospects that they should be willing to deal. Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, and James Loney have been the most talked about prospects in this deal. Jonathin Broxton has also been a frequently discussed player between the two teams. I would say that if this deal were to get done it would be something along the lines of Loney, Kemp and Broxton heading to Boston.
The second team is the San Diego Padres. Linebrink is apparantly available and Boston is in strong need of bullpen help with them shifting Papelbon to the rotation. other names that have been mentioned in a deal with San Diego are Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy. I cant imagine that the Padres would deal Jake Peavy, and i dont think that Gonzalez and linebrink will be enough to get Manny.
A Few Free Agent Notes:
- Jose Guillen signed a contract to play for the Seattle Mariners. This is a signing that is probably going under the radar, but is a big move for the mariners. Even though Safeco isnt a great hitters park, i would say that he should be penciled in for around 30 HR and 100 RBI depending on his spot in the line up. I would look for him to start in LF, and have Ibanez move to the DH spot. This leaves potential sleeper Chis Snelling competing with Jeremy Reed for an OF spot. If Ichiro will move to CF, then Reed is likely out and Snelling is likely in RF. However, if Reed has a great Spring then Ichiro might stay in RF and Reed will play CF.
- Dave Roberts moves to San Francisco. He will move into the CF position and bat leadoff for this team. I think you can assume that he will do about the same thing as he did last year statistically, however dont expect alot of runs. Bonds will no longer be in that lineup and they dont seem to have people in that lineup that will get him runs. This could bump up expectations for Vizquel and Durham for next season though. Vizquel should be batting #2 with Durham batting #3 and with a speedster like Roberts in front of them they should get plenty of opportunities to hit singles and get RBIs.
- Podsednik resigns in Chicago. Podsednik has little value in real life. His SB is the only thing that keeps him in the line up. He has a bad batting average and suspect arm. He might be best suited to be a CF, but for some reason has played LF most of his major league career. With Ryan Sweeney ready to take over an MLB job, look for Podsednik to compete with Brian Anderson for the last OF spot. The White Sox are not that high on Anderson anymore, but i cant imagine them not giving him another shot in the Spring. If he does well in Spring he may earn a platoon with Podsednik.
- Adam Eaton has moved on from Texas and will now throw for the Phillies. I would say that this helps Eaton owners in fantasy circles. I wouldnt say that Eaton becomes a great player to own, but i would say that this move might put him on some sleeper lists. Eaton had a 5.12 ERA in Texas, but his ERA should go down getting away from that hitters haven. Going to Phili should see Eaton get around 12-14 wins and lower his ERA to the low 4s atleast. Keep an eye on this guy.
- Adam Kennedy signs with the Cardinals. This was a great pick up for the Cardinals. Kennedy is a guy who plays gold glove defense and can handle the bat as well. This is a guy who could bat early or late in the order and produce for you. You could bat him 2nd in the lineup behind Eckstein and expect Kennedy to produce around a .280 batting average, and do many of the little things to help get Pujols to the plate with guys in scoring position. He could also be placed in the 9 hole in the lineup ( a spot he often filled in los angeles) and expect him to average around .300. Either way i think his value should go up with him joining a more productive offensive lineup in St. Louis.
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